A new study has shown that the election of Jair Bolsonaro, known for his homophobic views, as president of Brazil in 2018 caused a temporary surge in the number of same-sex marriages. The increase was particularly high in Brazilian municipalities where a large number of voters had previously voted for Bolsonaro. The study, conducted by researchers at the Universities of Tübingen and Valencia, as well as the EBS University for Business and Law in Oestrich-Winkel, has been published in the Journal of Population Economics.

“The fear alone of losing rights can directly influence the behavior of members of minority groups, even when that fear is unfounded and, as in Brazil, the legal situation cannot change”, says Mateus Maciel, one of the study’s authors and a doctoral candidate in International Economic Relations and Labor Markets. Yet the researchers say this behavior is not irrational, because the affected couples regard the cost of a potential loss of their right to marry as greater than the cost of getting married. Given this reasoning, even a low probability of a change in the law is sufficient to trigger marriages that may not have taken place otherwise.

Data from nearly 5,000 towns and municipalities

The researchers analyzed the number of same-sex marriages in 4,905 cities and municipalities in Brazil. They examined the 36-month period before and the 12-month period after the first round of the presidential election on October 7, 2018. “In this first round, people usually vote for the candidate they actually prefer. After that, people vote strategically”, says David Zuchowski, co-author of the study. “So the results give us a clear picture of just how strong support for Jair Bolsonaro actually was across municipalities.” The researchers then compared how the number of marriages among gay and lesbian couples developed in municipalities with high support versus in those with low support for Bolsonaro.

September 2018, the month before the presidential election, served as the comparison month for the trend in same-sex marriages. The number of such marriages surged between the election in October and Bolsonaro’s inauguration in January 2019. Within those four months, the sharpest increase occurred in December, shortly before he took office. In areas where Jair Bolsonaro’s share of the vote was ten percentage points higher, the number of same-sex marriages increased by approximately 85 percent relative to the reference month and thus nearly doubled. In the 36 months leading up to the October 2018 election, the figure had remained consistently lower.

More lesbian than gay couples

In the months that followed, the number dropped back to its pre-election level but did not fall below it. Thus, the couples who married during the peak were those who had not previously planned to do so. In addition to the fear of losing the right to marry, the study’s authors cite the economic and legal security brought by marriage as another reason for the increase. In Brazil, married couples benefit from social benefits, health insurance, inheritance rights, and tax advantages compared to unmarried couples. In the researchers’ view, this also explains why more lesbian couples than gay couples tied the knot during that period. “Research into same-sex marriage indicates women are more risk-averse than men,” says Sara Parente, a co-author of the study. The authors conclude that both factors have heightened the perceived threat and led to the rise in same-sex marriages.