Nature cannot be measured with complete precision
Unlike economic transactions, which have exact monetary values, socio-ecological indicators such as the abundance of pollinator insects, or the value of the service they provide can only be estimated. These estimates often come with substantial margins of error.
– Treating ecological estimates as precise numbers can lead to the accumulation of uncertainties throughout accounting systems, says Bálint Czúcz, first author and Senior Researcher at NINA.
This may result in misleading figures, accounting artefacts, and ultimately a loss of trust in environmental policies.
Accounting for uncertainty
To make natural capital accounting a meaningful and reliable decision-support tool, the field demand basic scientific research into new, uncertainty-aware accounting methods, says Czúcz.
Bayesian approaches pioneering in sister disciplines, such as carbon and material flow accounting, could provide part of the solution.
Read the paper here: Natural Capital Accounting Needs a Way to Assess Uncertainty