An agreement on the third implementation phase of Destination Earth (DestinE), the European Commission’s initiative to develop a highly accurate digital twin of the Earth, has been signed between the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The third phase will start in June 2026 and end in June 2028.

The DestinE digital twins enable the exploration of past, present and likely future climate and extreme conditions, including tailored ‘what if’ scenarios, such as Storyline simulations to replay past events and explore how they might unfold in a world 2 °C warmer. These help European and national institutions understand and better prepare for, and adapt to, risks caused by extreme weather and climate change.

Roberto Viola, Director-General of the DG for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, European Commission, said:

“Destination Earth demonstrates how Europe can transform major investments in supercomputing and artificial intelligence into concrete benefits for its citizens. By uniting world-class EuroHPC infrastructure, cutting-edge AI Factories, and Europe's unparalleled expertise in climate and weather science, DestinE strengthens our collective capability to anticipate climate and weather threats — and to act decisively on them. This is how Europe builds resilience.”

Since 2022, ECMWF has worked closely with ESA, EUMETSAT and more than 100 partner organisations, including many national meteorological services, to implement the Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin and the Weather-Induced Extremes Digital Twin.

These core components of DestinE have already progressed from early prototypes to modelling frameworks that routinely produce high-resolution climate projections and detailed simulations of extreme events. 

As a key element of the DestinE system, ECMWF and its partners have also implemented the Digital Twin Engine that orchestrates the digital twin workflows and data flows on EuroHPC supercomputers and DestinE infrastructure and enables tailored access to high-resolution digital twin data across the whole system.

Since 2024 (Phase 2), DestinE has also seen a substantial expansion of artificial intelligence activities, including the development of machine-learning components for different parts of the Earth system (land, ocean, sea ice, waves and hydrology), and AI-based solutions that enhance interactivity with digital twin data.  

In Phase 3, ECMWF and its partners will focus on operating and interlinking the Climate and Extremes Digital Twins, and the Digital Twin Engine, and developing the AI capabilities further:

“Phase 3 allows us to consolidate the digital twins while taking the next major steps towards delivering an AI Earth-system model, building on the combined expertise of ECMWF, our Member States and partners”, said Florian Pappenberger, Director-General of ECMWF.

“By integrating physical understanding with innovative AI approaches, we will further enhance Europe’s weather and climate prediction capabilities”, he added.

“This will support European National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other public institutions in preparing for extreme events in a changing climate and protecting communities. At the same time, the combination of high-resolution, AI-ready digital twin datasets and Europe’s AI ecosystem—including the AI Factories —creates the conditions for a new generation of AI applications for weather and climate and supports innovation across European industry and the public sector. Together, these developments strengthen Europe’s leadership in trustworthy AI for environmental intelligence, while supporting preparedness, resilience and innovation across Europe.”

The developments include advancing and coupling machine learning based Earth system components towards an AI Earth system model that complements physics-based simulations and supports uncertainty quantification and rapid ‘what-if’ experimentation.

It also includes producing high quality, AI-ready datasets that can feed Europe’s AI Factories, strengthening links between supercomputing, AI and Earth-system science. 

Together, these developments will continue to leverage Europe’s investment in high-performance computing and artificial intelligence and complement existing national and European services, developed in close collaboration with Member States. 

Irina Sandu, Director of Destination Earth at ECMWF, said: 

“Destination Earth is, above all, a collaborative European effort. It brings together expertise in Earth system modelling, software engineering, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence. By pooling resources and working closely with our partners, we are building capabilities that complement existing national and European services and help European institutions and Member States prepare for the challenges posed by climate change and extreme events.” 

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