Migrating as a refugee is a complex process that takes years. Such has been made clear by a large-scale study in which researchers at Ruhr University Bochum and the Free University of Berlin (both Germany) surveyed over 1200 people who were forced to leave their home countries. The study focused on Colombia, Mexico, Turkey, and Jordan as transit countries and Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela as countries of origin. The study identifies factors that influence the decision to return to the home country, remain where they are, or migrate further. The three-year project “Stay, return, or move on” was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft und ended with a symposium in Bochum. In addition to articles in related journals, an English-language book will be published by Edward Elgar next spring. Further information can be found on the project page.
The decision to leave one’s home country often has to be made spontaneously. Fleeing as a refugee is often a years-long process in which living circumstances, political developments, and motivations for emigrating further continuously change. “The survey responses show that more than six years pass on average between the time when the respondents had to leave their home and the date of the survey, even though most of them state that they had initially thought they would only have to leave their homes for a few months,” says Professor Ludger Pries from Ruhr University Bochum, who led the study.
Experiences of violence create insecurity
Around a quarter of those surveyed reported experiencing violence in various forms during their initial migration. This ranged from financial fraud, exploitation, and verbal threats to kidnapping, extortion, armed robbery, and imprisonment. The perpetrators included soldiers and security forces, terrorist groups and militias, as well as neighbors, work superiors, passersby, petty criminals, organized criminal groups, and, in some cases, even NGO employees. “These findings are important because experiences of violence in transit countries reinforce the desire for onward migration to countries offering greater safety and security,” says Professor Stephanie Schütze of the Free University of Berlin. “The study results show that the Global North is not primarily a destination for refugee migration because of its welfare and social systems, but rather because of the perceived security and predictability of general living conditions.”
Factors that influence decisions
What else impacts the decision to remain, return, or move onward? The researchers evaluated and clustered the results of the surveys as well as 70 autobiographical narratives. The VESPER model, according to which refugees shape their lived reality in six dimensions, is helpful: interconnections or social networks, experiences, social situation, preferences, expectations, and resources. All aspects contribute to further life planning. For example, respondents who stated specific plans for their continued migration communicate less frequently with family members in the current transit country, and more frequently with family members in the country of origin or potential destination country. People who experience less violence plan to stay in the current country than is statistically expected. People who prioritize traditional, family-based values tend to plan to remain, while those with plans to move onward value personal advancement in education and employment much more frequently.
More understanding and protection for migrants
“A longitudinal perspective of the entire life course, in particular contextual conditions before departing the country of origin and during the forced migration, is necessary for adequately understanding and explaining refugee migration,” says Pries. “Migrants who are forced to flee deserve understanding and special protection.” Because they strive for predictable and sustainable living opportunities in the interest of an independent life, transit and destination countries should provide adequate opportunities for participation, especially with regard to employment, education, and culture, say the researchers. Because these migrants often have to travel without valid residence documents, more paths to legalization should be opened. Migrants who are forced to leave their countries of origin should be given more opportunities to bring their life stories and demands to the public's attention, such as through regular surveys and reports to national and international bodies and through advisory committees or representative bodies at the national and international level.
Facts and figures
The number of violently displaced persons has tripled from around 40 million in the 1990s to over 123 million by late 2024. Over half of all refugees are displaced within their own countries of origin. Those who apply for official asylum status make up only about seven percent worldwide. Over two-thirds of all forced migrants live in states neighboring their countries of origin. Nearly 230,000 initial applications for asylum were approved in Germany in 2024. Together with the around 1.2 million Ukrainian war refugees, these refugees made up less than two percent of the German resident population in late 2024. In Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, the figures were four, nearly six, and even twelve percent, respectively. Over 46 million asylum-seekers were recorded for the six countries Sudan, Colombia, Syria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Yemen, and Afghanistan alone.