A new study reveals how local knowledge and visitor trends shape perceptions of overtourism risk in suburban destinations

Overtourism has attracted considerable attention in popular city centers, but less is known about tourism risks in under-visited suburban areas. A new study examined how tourism practitioners in suburban Tokyo assessed the risk of overtourism. Although practitioners considered overtourism unlikely, the perception was partially inconsistent with statistical evidence. The findings highlight the importance of combining local knowledge with visitor data to better understand tourism risks.

Overtourism has become a growing concern in popular tourist destinations, where large numbers of visitors can put pressure on local communities and attractions. However, not all destinations face the same challenges. While busy city centers may struggle to manage crowds, less-visited suburban areas often face the opposite problem: attracting enough visitors. As tourism develops in these areas, an important question arises: Could places that currently receive relatively few visitors face new pressures as tourism grows?

In a recent study published online on September 29, 2026, in the International Journal of Tourism Cities, Senior Assistant Professor Sho Shimoyamada from the Faculty of Science and Technology at Keio University, Japan, studied how tourism practitioners in suburban Tokyo perceived the risk of overtourism and whether their assessments aligned with visitor trends. The research was partly inspired by an unexpected experience Dr. Shimoyamada had after returning to central Tokyo in 2017. He was woken by a late-night disturbance at a neighboring house where tourists were apparently having a party. As Dr. Shimoyamada recalls, “At the time, ‘overtourism’ was not yet widely recognised in Japan, but the incident made me realize that tourism could affect communities in unexpected ways.”

To investigate this, Dr. Shimoyamada interviewed 13 tourism practitioners involved in a local tourism project in suburban Tokyo. He also analyzed visitor numbers of eight attractions in the area for the fiscal years 2019 to 2021. Despite an overall downward trend under COVID-19, the number of visitors to a small Japanese garden increased significantly. By comparing these records with the practitioners’ views, Dr. Shimoyamada explored whether local assessments reflected the changes seen in visitor numbers.

The interviews revealed that practitioners generally regarded undertourism as a persistent concern and considered overtourism unlikely in their area. Their views were shaped by their familiarity with the local community and their experience of how the area compared with popular destinations in central Tokyo. However, visitor records from the Japanese garden showed that its visitor numbers rose by 27.2% from 2019 to 2020. Although numbers fell slightly the following year, they remained higher than in 2019. The increase occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, when many attractions experienced a decline in visitors. The garden’s staff suggested that a television program featuring it as a peaceful urban oasis may have contributed to its unexpected popularity. However, the rise in visitor numbers alone does not mean that the garden was experiencing overtourism. Assessing tourism risks requires looking beyond visitor counts to understand the context and pressures at each destination.

Reflecting on the broader message of the research, Dr. Shimoyamada explains, “The aim is not to dismiss intuitive or experience-based judgements, but to understand when they are useful, where they may fall short, and how they can be considered alongside other forms of knowledge.” His findings suggest that local familiarity can offer valuable insights, but it may not capture every change in tourism patterns. Similarly, statistics can reveal changes that deserve attention, but they do not always explain why those changes occurred.

The findings have practical implications for tourism businesses and local planners, particularly in less-visited destinations. Dr. Shimoyamada recommends a three-step approach to assessing tourism-related risks. First, businesses should collect detailed visitor data, including how people move within attractions where possible. Second, they should analyze changes in visitor numbers over time, seeking statistical expertise when needed. Third, they should combine these findings with local experience to establish appropriate thresholds for concern. As Dr. Shimoyamada explains, “This approach can help enterprises identify emerging pressures before they become serious problems, while avoiding unnecessary alarm based on isolated increases in visitation.”

Overall, the study highlights the need to consider both overtourism and undertourism when planning for tourism development. Understanding the different challenges faced by popular and less-visited destinations can help create a more balanced approach to tourism that considers the needs of local communities.