A recent study in the Journal of Nutrition Education and Behavior found that the cost of the USDA’s Thrifty Food Plan varied substantially across regions and major metropolitan areas in the United States, with geographic differences accounting for most of the variation in the cost of a healthy diet

June 8, 2026 – A recent study in the Journal of Nutrition Education and Behavior (JNEB), published by Elsevier, examined how the cost of the USDA’s Thrifty Food Plan (TFP), which serves as the basis for determining maximum SNAP benefits, varied across geographic regions, metropolitan areas, and seasons from 2012 to 2018. Researchers found that where a household is located plays a much larger role in the cost of a healthy diet than year-to-year inflation.

Researchers used USDA Food-at-Home Monthly Area Prices data linked with the 2021 TFP market basket, which specifies the types and quantities of foods that an individual or household could purchase in a week to meet the TFP. They analyzed food prices across four census regions and 10 major metropolitan areas. The Northeast consistently had the highest weekly TFP costs, while the Midwest and South had the lowest. Among metropolitan areas, New York, Boston, and Los Angeles had the highest costs, while Detroit and Houston were among the lowest.

The study found that geographic differences explained nearly 90% of the variation in TFP costs, while seasonal fluctuations accounted for much of the remaining variation. Weekly TFP costs were typically highest during winter months and lowest during the fall. Researchers also identified several food categories that contributed heavily to geographic and seasonal cost differences, including whole fruit, vegetables, whole grain staple grains, poultry, eggs, and dairy products. Whole fruit prices, for example, were consistently higher in the Northeast and peaked during winter months.

“These findings show that the affordability of a healthy diet can differ dramatically depending on where families live,” said Parke Wilde, PhD, corresponding author of the study, Professor at the Gerald J. and Dorothy R. Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University, Boston, MA. “Because SNAP benefits are largely based on national average food prices, regional differences may affect whether households can realistically afford nutritious foods.”

The researchers highlighted that current SNAP benefit calculations generally do not account for geographic price variation outside of Alaska and Hawaii. They also noted that recent federal legislation now requires future reevaluations of the TFP to remain cost-neutral in inflation-adjusted terms, potentially limiting the flexibility of future SNAP updates to reflect changing food environments.

The study emphasizes the importance of continued research into regional and seasonal food price variation to better inform nutrition assistance policy, particularly as policymakers debate future SNAP funding levels and eligibility changes.

TFP is a model diet developed by the USDA to estimate the cost of an affordable, healthy diet in the US. It is designed to meet recommended nutrient intakes from the Dietary Reference Intakes and food group recommendations from the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, while addressing practical considerations and minimizing differences from current food consumption patterns.