Emil Bayramov of Nazarbayev University, Nurmakhambet Sydyk of the Institute of Ionosphere and Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Serik Nurakynov and Alena Yelisseyeva of the Institute of Ionosphere, Jessica Neafie of Nazarbayev University, and Saida Aliyeva of ADA University report new evidence of tectonic and anthropogenic ground deformation in the seismically sensitive Almaty region, Kazakhstan.
A new study applies multi-track
SBAS-InSAR and
3D deformation analysis to map ground motion across Almaty and its surrounding mountains between
2017 and 2023. The researchers found strong spatial contrasts in uplift, subsidence, and horizontal motion, revealing a complex interaction between crustal shortening, lateral faulting, urban development, and groundwater-related subsidence. The results identify the
central Almaty fault as the clearest zone of active deformation and demonstrate the value of combining InSAR with GPS and geospatial datasets for urban seismic-risk assessment.
Key findings
- Vertical ground motion ranged from –95 mm/year to +52 mm/year, with uplift concentrated in the southern mountainous sector and localized subsidence in northern urban areas.
- Horizontal motion was also substantial: east–west displacements ranged from –156 to +211 mm/year, while north–south motion ranged from –20 to +19 mm/year.
- A sharp deformation boundary was detected along the central Almaty fault, separating uplifted southern areas from subsiding northern zones and marking the most evident locus of active tectonic strain.
- Other mapped faults did not show consistent surface-deformation signatures, suggesting either limited present-day activity or motion below the detection threshold of the method.
- Validation against continuous GPS showed strong agreement for the vertical and east–west components, supporting the robustness of the multi-geometry InSAR workflow.
- The study also distinguished between gradual urban subsidence linked to settlement and loading, and more episodic movement in landslide-prone areas.
Why it matters
Almaty is one of Central Asia’s most hazard-prone cities, yet high-resolution, long-term deformation monitoring has remained limited. This study provides an updated, spatially detailed picture of how tectonic forces and human activity are reshaping the ground beneath the city, offering practical evidence for seismic hazard assessment, infrastructure monitoring, land-use planning, and urban risk reduction. More broadly, the work shows how advanced spaceborne InSAR can support resilient planning in rapidly growing cities located in tectonically active mountain environments.