NU Student Research Explores Why Protests Erupt in Central Asia
Early-career researchers from Nazarbayev University examine why people in Central Asia engage in public protests despite high risks under authoritarian rule. Their study shows that perceived economic injustice (relative deprivation) is the primary driver of collective action across the region.
About the Study
Published in the Journal of Eurasian Studies, the research analyzes protest events in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan between 1991 and 2020. Using data from the Mass Mobilization Data Project, the authors examine protest demands, participant profiles, and government responses, linking them to leading theories of contentious politics.
Key Findings
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Relative deprivation frustration over unmet economic expectations is the most consistent trigger of protests.
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Kyrgyzstan: protests are more politically driven and linked to elections and elite competition.
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Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan: mobilization чаще связана с социально-экономическими требованиями.
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Tajikistan & Turkmenistan: жесткие репрессии сдерживают протесты, но недовольство сохраняется.
Why It Matters
Most protests are local and non-violent, but heavy-handed responses can escalate tensions. The authors argue that addressing economic grievances early through social protection and inclusive growth can reduce future instability and support gradual political development.
Impact for Nazarbayev University
The study highlights NU’s contribution to data-driven, theory-informed research on Central Asia, demonstrating how regional evidence can advance global debates on inequality, authoritarian governance, and protest dynamics.
Key Quote
“Despite shared historical roots, Central Asian states differ significantly in how societies perceive grievances and how governments respond to public protests.”