This study investigates the transformative impact of generative AI (GenAI), particularly ChatGPT, on higher education through a mixed-methods approach combining survey analysis and scenario forecasting. The research addresses two critical gaps in existing literature: (1) the lack of stakeholder-specific analysis separating student and educator perspectives, and (2) the absence of concrete solution strategies for GenAI integration.

The core methodology integrates quantitative data from 188 student respondents with qualitative scenario analysis, revealing distinct patterns in GenAI adoption. Key findings indicate that 66% of students find ChatGPT more helpful than traditional resources, with 89% reporting workload reduction benefits. However, 70% express concerns about academic dishonesty, creating a paradox where students simultaneously value GenAI’s utility while recognizing its risks. The scenario analysis framework examines four potential futures based on two key dimensions: usage frequency (low vs. excessive) and responsibility level (responsible vs. irresponsible).

The “Transformation” scenario (high usage, high responsibility) envisions GenAI enabling personalized learning but requiring curriculum redesign toward higher-order thinking skills. Conversely, the “Survival” scenario (high usage, low responsibility) warns of eroded critical thinking and academic integrity breaches. The study identifies the “Conversation” scenario (moderate usage, high responsibility) as the most probable current state, where GenAI supplements but doesn’t replace human instruction.

The research makes three substantive contributions: First, it provides empirical evidence of divergent perceptions between frequent users (37% of respondents using GenAI weekly) and occasional users, with frequent users reporting 0.75-0.85 higher positive perception scores. Second, it develops a novel scenario matrix that moves beyond binary optimism/pessimism frameworks to model complex adoption pathways. Third, it offers actionable recommendations including AI literacy training (endorsed by 67% of students), assessment redesign, and ethical usage guidelines.

Limitations include demographic concentration (61% male, 41% German respondents) and exclusion of educator survey data. The study concludes that responsible GenAI integration requires balancing its demonstrated benefits in student productivity against risks to academic rigor, advocating for policy frameworks that neither prohibit nor uncritically embrace these technologies. Future research directions include longitudinal studies on skill erosion and cross-cultural comparisons of GenAI adoption patterns.

The findings challenge binary narratives about educational AI, demonstrating through both survey data and scenario modeling that GenAI’s impact hinges not on the technology itself, but on how institutions structure its adoption. This underscores the need for pedagogical adaptation rather than mere technological implementation, positioning GenAI as a catalyst for rethinking fundamental educational paradigms rather than simply a new instructional tool.
DOI: 10.1007/s44366-025-0058-7