“We know that sea levels are rising due to climate change, but we don’t know much about who will be affected. The purpose of this study has therefore been to identify which workplaces and businesses are actually located in these flood zones,” said Francis Barre, a PhD research fellow at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU).

He is behind a study that compares where businesses and workplaces are located, the value they create, and how vulnerable they are to storm surges in various climate scenarios.

What happens when sea levels rise and storms create surges that flood areas of commercial importance such as Ålesund or Tromsø? Which sectors are most at risk? Is it time to move factories to safer areas?

As part of the study, Barre has created digital maps.

Users can zoom in on their own municipality and get a detailed overview of where businesses are located and which ones lie within potential flood zones.

In the study, Barre used flood scenarios from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) that show what would happen in the event of a 20-year storm surge, a 200-year storm surge, and a 1000-year storm surge.

There are predictions for all three scenarios calculated on the basis of both the current sea level and a ‘worst-case scenario’, where the global temperature has risen by 3–5°C.

The researchers expect this to happen by the year 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate.

“We see that the consequences of a 20-year storm surge event in the ‘worst-case scenario’ are greater than those of a 1000-year storm surge event with the current conditions,” said Barre.

A 1000-year storm surge event is an extremely high water level that can be expected to occur on average every thousand years. The closest we have come to this type of storm surge in modern times was in February 2020 when Hurricane Elsa caused storm surges in Agder, Western Norway and Trøndelag.

A record-high water level was recorded in Måløy, Bryggen in Bergen was flooded, and Trondheim harbour was submerged.

“These types of extreme storm surges may become commonplace. It’s a very scary prospect,” exclaimed Barre.

However, he emphasizes that we are talking about extremes here.

“This is a scenario in which we have done nothing to stop greenhouse gas emissions, so it really highlights the importance of reducing them.”

The results show that the largest assets at risk are in the service sector (such as trade and transport) and public administration. If the worst-case scenario were to occur, the gross value added (GVA) that would be exposed to storm surges and flooding in these sectors currently amounts to NOK 3.3 and 4.1 billion per year, respectively.

The totals are lower for agriculture and fisheries, but approximately 15 per cent of the value added in this sector is vulnerable to storm surges, mostly related to the aquaculture industry.

Based on the current climate conditions, only 0.2 per cent of Norway’s total value added is at risk of flooding caused by storm surges. However, if the ‘worst-case scenario’ were to occur, 3.7 per cent of the country’s value added would be at risk.

Based on current figures, this corresponds to NOK 12.6 billion in value added.

Barre emphasizes that the study is based on figures for the current economic situation.

“I haven’t looked at what happens if businesses start moving away from at-risk areas, or if municipalities begin building flood defences. What the figures actually show is the extent to which the Norwegian economy will need to adapt to new risks,” explained Barre.

He has also investigated how businesses and the economy are indirectly exposed to flood risk due to parts of the value chain being located in vulnerable areas. In this scenario, the figures are even higher.

“The sector that stands out here is the oil and gas industry. Despite extraction taking place offshore, the industry relies on an onshore supply sector.

As a result, the oil and gas industry is also exposed to risk as sea levels rise.

“This says something about the vulnerability of these sectors,” added Barre.

Barre believes local authorities could benefit greatly from the study, by using it to analyze vulnerability to coastal flooding in their own areas.

“For example, it can help them prioritize the building of flood defences in the most vulnerable areas, where most businesses are at risk,” said Barre.

The study is a collaborative project between NILU and NTNU. The Norwegian Mapping Authority has contributed map data on storm surge risk in various climate scenarios, and Barre has obtained financial data for the businesses from the Brønnøysund Register Centre.

“The Brønnøysund Register Centre has been an invaluable source in this study. The fact that data for every single business in the country, both public and private, can be easily accessed is unique to Norway. However, this also means the study is not as easily transferable to other countries,” said Barre.