Ecosystem services are the lifelines of human society, underpinning everything from food security to climate regulation. Yet, their ability to keep pace with rising demand is faltering. Geographic and temporal mismatches between supply and demand are becoming more pronounced, threatening sustainable development. While past studies have explored these dynamics at local or national scales, the lack of global, long-term assessments has left a major knowledge gap. Furthermore, the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human intervention remain poorly understood. Due to these pressing gaps, a systematic global analysis is urgently needed to clarify the patterns and drivers of ecological mismatches.
A team of researchers from Nanjing Agricultural University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences has conducted the first pixel-level global assessment of ecosystem service supply–demand (ESSD) trends. Published (DOI: 10.1016/j.ese.2025.100573) on May 3, 2025, in Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, the study tracked changes from 2000 to 2020 using satellite data and multi-model coupling. It offers a detailed look at how climate change and human activity—separately and together—affect the global balance of four critical services, providing fresh insights for sustainable ecosystem governance.
The study reveals that, overall, ecosystem services are trending toward surplus—particularly food production and soil conservation. Yet this is not a cause for complacency. Alarming deficits are growing for carbon sequestration and water yield, especially in densely populated or industrialized zones. Spatial analysis uncovered - patterns of pattern of supply-demand mismatch: areas rich in natural resources but with sparse populations, such as remote forests and grasslands, often exhibited high supply but low demand. Meanwhile, regions with urban sprawl or rapid population growth—like sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia—faced the opposite problem. The main culprits vary by service: human activities drive mismatches in food production and carbon sequestration, while precipitation and temperature shifts—linked to climate change—are more influential in soil conservation and water yield. In fact, 80.69% of regions saw improved food supply due to these combined impact, while 76.74% suffered declines in carbon storage. A particularly revealing finding was the spatial complementarity: where one force wanes, the other waxes. These insights, derived from fine-grained (1×1 km) global data, empower decision-makers to target local solutions for a global problem.
“Pinpointing where and why nature's services fall short is crucial for smart policy,” said Dr. Wei Wu, corresponding author of the study. “Our findings show that it's not a matter of climate versus human activity—it's about their interaction. Recognizing this dual influence is key to crafting effective land-use and conservation strategies in an era of accelerating change.”
This study lays a strategic foundation for navigating ecological mismatches in a warming, crowded world. By revealing where and why mismatches occur, and identifying their dominant drivers, the research offers concrete tools for policymakers and conservationists. For example, regions with declining water yield may require investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, while areas with food shortfalls might need shifts in agricultural zoning. The authors also call for future research to incorporate more nuanced indicators of human demand and distinguish between types of human activity. Such refinements will enable more precise, targeted management of ecosystem services—ensuring that nature continues to sustain society in the decades to come.
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References
DOI
10.1016/j.ese.2025.100573
Original Source URL
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2025.100573
Funding information
This work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (No. 2019QZKK0406), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42371276), and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (No. G20200010086, No. DL2021145002L).
About Environmental Science and Ecotechnology
Environmental Science and Ecotechnology (ISSN 2666-4984) is an international, peer-reviewed, and open-access journal published by Elsevier. The journal publishes significant views and research across the full spectrum of ecology and environmental sciences, such as climate change, sustainability, biodiversity conservation, environment & health, green catalysis/processing for pollution control, and AI-driven environmental engineering. The latest impact factor of ESE is 14, according to the Journal Citation ReportTM 2024.