New research finds that hope has two distinct sides—and only one consistently motivates climate action. Across three studies in Israel and the United States, researchers found that a strong wish for environmental change was a more powerful predictor of sustainable behavior than optimism that change will actually occur.

For years, psychologists and climate scientists have argued that hope is essential for motivating people to act on climate change. But what if not all hope is created equal? A new study by researchers from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem suggests that the kind of hope people feel may make all the difference. Rather than believing climate problems are likely to be solved, it is the deep desire to see change—the wish for a better future—that appears to be the stronger driver of environmentally responsible behavior and support for climate policies.

Published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, the research was conducted by Noga Mostovoy Elzafan, Yehezkel Schneebalg, Dr. Oded Adomi Leshem, Nitzan Attias, and Prof. Eran Halperin, from the Hebrew University's Department of Psychology.

The researchers argue that hope is often treated as a single emotion, even though it actually consists of two distinct psychological components. One is wish; how strongly people desire a better future. The other is expectation; how likely they believe that future is to become reality. By separating these two elements, the team found that wishing for meaningful climate action consistently predicted greater environmental engagement, while simply expecting success had much weaker effects.

To test their theory, the researchers surveyed more than 1,100 participants across Israel and the United States in three separate studies. Participants answered questions about their hopes regarding climate change, their everyday environmental behaviors—such as recycling and conserving electricity—and their support for environmental policies. Across all three studies, the results were remarkably consistent: people who strongly wished for climate progress were significantly more likely to report pro-environmental behaviors and support climate policies, even after accounting for political views, climate beliefs, social norms, self-efficacy, and demographic differences. In contrast, believing that climate change was likely to be solved showed far weaker—and often insignificant—relationships with climate action.

"Our findings suggest that hope is much more nuanced than we typically assume," said Dr. Oded Adomi Leshem. "People don't necessarily need to believe success is likely in order to act. What seems to matter more is how deeply they want that future to exist. That desire alone can motivate meaningful engagement, even in the face of uncertainty."

The findings may help explain why previous research has produced conflicting conclusions about hope's role in climate action. Many earlier studies measured hope primarily as optimism or confidence that climate solutions would succeed.
According to the researchers, this may have overlooked the motivational power of simply caring deeply about the outcome.

The implications extend beyond academic theory. Climate campaigns frequently emphasize technological breakthroughs or positive predictions to convince people that progress is possible. While these messages remain important, the new findings suggest that communicators may achieve greater impact by helping people connect emotionally with the value of protecting the planet, regardless of how certain success appears.

"Climate change is a challenge filled with uncertainty," added Adomi Leshem. "Our research suggests that uncertainty does not have to prevent action. People may remain motivated not because they are convinced success is guaranteed, but because they genuinely believe that achieving a sustainable future is worth striving for."

“Given the complex reality here in Israel, climate change tends to fall to the bottom of the public and political agenda. Our findings suggest that shifting the emphasis, from how likely a sustainable future is to how much we want it, could help move people toward greater environmental engagement, even here. It highlights that even a small reframing of the issue may go a long way.” said Noga Mostovoy Elzafan

Beyond climate change, the researchers believe the findings may apply to many complex global challenges, from political conflict to public health, where people have limited control over outcomes but can still be inspired by a powerful vision of a better future. By understanding hope as both a wish and an expectation, psychologists may gain a more accurate picture of how people remain engaged even when success is far from certain.