For centuries, European colonial powers benefited from resources extracted from their colonies. The structures established during the colonial era continue to shape many aspects of society today. In a new study, currently available as a preprint, researchers from the University of Zurich (UZH) and the University of Konstanz investigated whether these historical legacies can also be observed in international football.
One possible advantage stems from the fact that many players with a colonial background represent the national teams of former colonial powers. The eight major former colonizers in Europe – England, Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy – consistently field some of the world’s most successful national teams. Many of these teams have benefited from players whose families have roots in former colonies, including Kylian Mbappé (France/Cameroon), Lamine Yamal (Spain/Equatorial Guinea), Marcus Rashford (England/Jamaica) and Matheus Nunes (Portugal/Brazil).
1,500 realistic World Cup simulations
To examine whether former colonial powers continue to benefit from these historical ties, the researchers used the popular video game Football Manager 2026 to generate nearly 1,500 realistic simulations of the upcoming 2026 World Cup. The simulations were based on detailed player and team data, combined with a wide range of real-world performance indicators. The study focused on 49 players with family roots in former colonies who currently represent the national teams of England, Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium or the Netherlands.
To assess the impact of these players, the researchers modeled three different scenarios. In the first, colonial-background players remained on their current national teams. In the second, they were removed from those teams altogether. In the third, they represented the national teams of their families’ countries of origin. Under this scenario, for example, Kylian Mbappé would play for Cameroon rather than France. The researchers then examined how these alternative team compositions influenced the outcome of the tournament.
Former colonies more victorious
The results reveal a clear link between colonial ties and success in international football. “If colonial-background players were to represent their families’ countries of origin, those countries would perform significantly better. By contrast, the success of former European colonial powers would decline,” says lead author Lucas da Silva from the Department of Communication and Media Research at UZH.
In the World Cup group stage, the average goal differential of former colonial teams improves by 0.76 when colonial-background players represent them rather than being excluded altogether. The effect is even greater for formerly colonized countries: their average goal difference improves by 1.27 goals when those same players represent the countries linked to their family origins instead. In the knockout stage, France advances an average of 0.58 rounds further (out of five) when these players remain on the French team rather than representing former colonies.
France most likely to win
Under current squad configurations, the simulations suggest that France is the most likely team to win the World Cup, winning 34.5% of all simulated tournaments. However, when players with family roots in former colonies are reassigned, France’s chances of winning are nearly cut in half, while Brazil’s almost double. Overall, formerly colonized countries win the World Cup nearly twice as often (35.2% of simulations) with colonial-background players on the field.
“Our findings suggest that former colonial powers benefit from access to a larger pool of talent,” says da Silva. “This comes at the expense of formerly colonized countries, which are often unable to offer the same career opportunities and financial incentives, which reinforces existing disparities in international football.”
Further information
The study is currently available as a preprint on the open-access server Open Science Framework.
Football Manager 2026
The video game is a widely used source of football simulation data for academics and even some professional football teams.
Literature
Lucas Paulo da Silva, Thomas Schincariol, Morgan Wack. Football Empires: Simulating the Effects of Colonialism on International Football. Open Science Framework. Preprint. 10 June 2026. DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/awy9x_v1