Vienna, Austria - When solar storms strike Earth, they can disrupt power grids, rail systems, satellites, and even marine life. These effects arise because solar wind and geomagnetic activity disturb the magnetosphere–ionosphere system, generating electric and magnetic field variations that can resemble fainter signals from natural hazards. This risk is not theoretical. On 03 February, 2022, a moderate space weather event demonstrated its destructive potential: Shortly after launch, SpaceX lost 38 out of 49 Starlink satellites. The incident underscores how even modest geomagnetic storms can significantly disrupt human systems and highlights the need for more accurate prediction and forecasting.

New research at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU26) highlights a new project launched by the European Space Agency called Swarm-AWARE (Swarm Investigation of Space Weather and Natural Hazards Effects). Georgios Balasis of the National Observatory of Athens in Greece will present how data from Swarm satellites, combined with ground-based and Copernicus Sentinel-5P observations, can help distinguish ionospheric electromagnetic signatures driven by space weather from those linked to natural hazards. Their research has important implications for infrastructure, communications, and early-warning systems.

Swarm satellites are collecting measurements of Earth’s magnetic field, plasma densities and temperatures, electric fields and an array of other important data. By integrating these datasets with complementary observations, researchers aim to advance our understanding of how space weather impacts the near-Earth environment, and to separate those effects from hazard-driven signals. The 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption provides a benchmark case, Balasis says. “The eruption not only pumped tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere, but generated waves that reached the upper atmosphere, causing significant perturbations in the ionospheric density,” he says. “The waves triggered electric fields that travelled along magnetic field lines, causing instantaneous changes on the opposite side of the Pacific Ocean.” These disturbances were all detected by Swarm magnetometers. The Swarm-AWARE team will apply machine learning and advanced time series analysis to satellite and ground data in hopes of better understanding how space weather affects infrastructure but also move toward reliable space weather predictions. Ultimately, the project will not only support future scientific research but also help organizations make better decisions in [near]real time.

Text written by Alka Tripathy-Lang.