Maize, rice and cassava drive more deforestation than major export-oriented crops like cocoa, coffee, and rubber. This has been shown by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, in the most comprehensive global survey of how different commodities are causing deforestation. The study confirms the major impact of meat production, but reveals several overlooked drivers of deforestation.

Food production is the main cause of deforestation in the world, but until now there has not been any detailed mapping of which crops affect deforestation in which countries.

Chandrakant Singh, researcher at Chalmers University of Technology, is the lead author of a new study that addresses this knowledge gap. He has developed the Deforestation Driver and Carbon Emissions (DeDuCE) model, together with his colleague Martin Persson, who has extensive experience researching which agricultural commodities drive deforestation. The model links agricultural products with data on deforestation globally.

“Deforestation’s links to food production have long been studied, but have often focused on some products, such as beef, soybeans and palm oil, which are well known in the context of deforestation; and some countries in the world, such as Brazil or Indonesia. In our study, we’ve combined extensive satellite data on land use with agriculture statistics in a way that gives us the most comprehensive and accurate picture yet of what is driving deforestation worldwide,” says Singh.

The model covers 179 countries and 184 commodities. It shows that a total of 122 million hectares of forest have disappeared due to agriculture-driven deforestation during the period 2001–2022, of which more than 80 per cent has been lost in the tropics. The study confirms what we previously knew about the main drivers of deforestation: clearing forests to create pasture for meat production, as well as producing major export commodities such as soybeans and palm oil. But the study also contributes some more unexpected results.

Staples a strong driver of deforestation

The mapping shows that locally produced and consumed staple crops have a greater impact on deforestation than many major export commodities. Staple crops such as maize, rice and cassava together are responsible for about 11 per cent of all agriculture-driven deforestation, while the figure for cocoa, coffee and rubber combined is less than 5 per cent.

Unlike many other commodities, such as palm oil in South-East Asia and soybeans in South America, deforestation linked to staple crops is not concentrated to specific regions, but is distributed across large parts of the globe.

“The debate on deforestation has circulated a lot around how people in rich countries like ours cause deforestation with our commodities imports, and this is absolutely important to get to grips with. But we mustn’t forget that a large proportion of deforestation is driven by agricultural production for domestic markets. So to really reduce deforestation, we must also take action in the producer countries,” says Martin Persson.

The researchers hope that their results can provide important decision support for government agencies and companies wanting to take action to reduce deforestation.

“Our data shows where the risks are and where initiatives are needed most. The goal is for the model to connect researchers, decision-makers, companies and civil society,” says Singh.

Emissions from deforestation lower than anticipated

The study also provides a detailed picture of the carbon dioxide emissions that deforestation associated with agricultural and forestry products causes. Farmers and cattle ranchers often clear forested land by burning it, which means that the carbon stored in the vegetation is emitted as carbon dioxide. These emissions are estimated at around 41 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide between 2001 and 2022, or on average close to 2 billion tonnes per year. This is a much lower figure than in previous global compilations, where annual carbon dioxide emissions have been estimated at more than twice these figures.

According to Dr. Singh, the difference can be explained by the fact that their study has used a finer-scale attribution method than those used in the previous calculations.

“But even if the figure is lower than previous estimates, agriculture-driven deforestation still causes around 5 per cent of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions,” he says.

Improving the model further the goal

The researchers estimate that the model will be expanded to include non-food commodities in the future.

“We see a need to broaden the analysis beyond food and agriculture. One example is the mining and energy sector, which is a major driver of both direct and indirect deforestation. By broadening the analysis, we can get a more complete picture of which economic activities are putting pressure on forests around the world,” says Singh.


More about global deforestation
The figures relate to agriculture-driven deforestation between 2001 and 2022

Commodities driving global deforestation
Beef (40 per cent)
Palm oil (9 per cent)
Soy beans (5 per cent)
Maize (4 per cent)
Rice (4 per cent)
Cassava (3 per cent)
Cocoa (2 per cent)
Coffee (1 per cent)
Rubber (1 per cent)

Countries responsible for the biggest shares of global deforestation
Brazil (32 per cent)
Indonesia (9 per cent)
China (6 per cent)
Democratic Republic of Congo (6 per cent)
USA (5 per cent)
Ivory Coast (3 per cent)

More about the research:
The study Global patterns of commodity-driven deforestation and associated carbon emissions has been published in Nature Food. The authors are Chandrakant Singh and Martin Persson, who are researchers active at Chalmers University of Technology.
The study’s data and source code are free to use. More information can be found on the online deforestation footprint dashboard.

Further reading:
In connection with COP 30 in November 2025, the WWF published a report on deforestation in the Amazon, based on the study and its DeDuCE model. Read Chalmers’ press release about the report: Amazon rainforest is being deforested – and Swedes’ coffee-drinking plays a bigger role than our meat-eating