A study involving the UAB has analysed the effect of foreign trade and immigration on the success of both right- and left-wing populist parties. The analysis reveals how the importation of products that require low-skilled labour plays a key role in the rise of both types of populism, while immigration with low levels of education increases right-wing populism. Conversely, highly educated immigrants and imports requiring a high level of skilled labour reduce support for populism. The study proposes the implementation of selective policies as an alternative solution to protectionism and immigration barriers.

Given the growing support for populist political parties in virtually every country, a study recently published in The Economic Journal examines the extent to which this type of rhetoric is the result of how globalisation affects local societies. The study distinguishes between two dimensions of globalisation, trade and immigration, identifying the role of labour skills in imported products and the level of education of immigrants.
New index to measure a party's level of populism
The authors of the study, including Riccardo Turati, Serra Hùnter Professor in the Department of Applied Economics at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), have developed a new index that allows the level of populism of a political party to be scored continuously over time. After analysing the electoral programmes of political parties in fifty-five countries in elections held between 1960 and 2019, each party was assigned a populism score based on the prevalence of anti-elite rhetoric and commitments made to protect citizens from external economic shocks. The results of the analysis show that populism grew significantly in Europe during the 2010s, driven in part by the adoption of this type of discourse by traditional parties.
The results of the research indicate that both foreign trade and immigration are factors that explain the spread of populist rhetoric and its electoral success, but there are differences in the two. Populism, including both right-wing and left-wing variants, is highly sensitive to the skill composition of globalisation. Imports of goods with a high-skilled labour content and the immigration of highly educated workers contribute to reducing the success of populist parties, particularly those on the right. However, imports of low-skilled, labour-intensive goods fuel both right-wing and left-wing populism, while low-skilled immigration has the effect of increasing right-wing populism while reducing left-wing populism.
Selected policies
These results highlight that, although there is a clear link between globalisation and populism, the effect of the former on the latter depends heavily on the nature of immigration and trade shocks.
“The past few months have provided clear evidence that populist leaders are taking a firm stance against the international movement of goods and people, i.e. against international trade and migration”, explains Riccardo Turati. "An alternative solution to trade or migration barriers would be the implementation of selected, more reasonable and pragmatic policies that take into account the qualifications of products, or the training of immigrants. Any policy recommendation on trade restrictions, protectionism, or immigration must carefully weigh the various impacts of each, particularly in terms of their specific content by qualification", Turati concludes.
The study, published in The Economic Journal, one of the most prestigious economics journals, is the result of an international collaboration involving Frédéric Docquier from LISER, Luxembourg; Stefano Iandolo from the University of Salerno, Italy; Hillel Rapoport from the Paris School of Economics, France; and Gonzague Vannoorenberghe from UCLouvain, Belgium.