Meadows once teeming with buzzing insects and colorful plants are quietly losing their diversity. But how fast is this change happening and can we detect it before species disappear? A German-Swiss research team led by Professor Dr Lena Neuenkamp of Bielefeld University has found an answer. Their study, published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, shows that spatial data can remarkably well predict how biodiversity changes over time.

“Long-term observations often take many years. Spatial data, on the other hand, are available immediately and yet they speak a clear language,” says the study’s first author, Professor Neuenkamp. “Our results show that we can already identify where nature is under pressure.”

Unique data from 150 meadows
For the study, the team of Bern and several German universities used a unique dataset of the Biodiversity Exploratories, a large-scale project funded since 2006 by the German Research Foundation. On 150 grassland sites, plants and arthropods—such as insects and spiders—were surveyed annually over eleven years.
The researchers compared how biodiversity differs between locations and how it changes over the years. The result: when land is used more intensively—more fertilization, more frequent mowing, or denser grazing—biodiversity declines. This applies both to the number of species within a site (so-called α-diversity) and to the differences between sites (β-diversity).

A tool for faster conservation
Especially striking: patterns in spatial data and time series are highly similar. This means that spatial observations can serve as a “shortcut” when long-term datasets are lacking.

“This gives us a potential early-warning system for biodiversity loss,” says Professor Dr. Norbert Hölzel of the University of Münster, who has been working in the Biodiversity Exploratories for more than 15 years. “We can now better anticipate where ecosystems might tip and act sooner.”
The study also shows that changes in nature often occur with delays. Some species respond only years after land use intensifies. Long-term data therefore remain essential to understand these time lags.

The researchers emphasize: even if change begins quietly, it can be made visible. And that visibility is crucial for protecting biodiversity before it’s too late.

Long-term monitoring of vegetation in the DFG biodiversity exploration sites is assured for the next six years, with Bielefeld and Münster Universities taking responsibility for this as part of a recently successful collaborative project with the University of Bern.