A recent study published in Engineering offers new insights into the potential areas for high-yield finfish mariculture, leveraging advanced physiological models that account for the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of marine environments. The research, conducted by Shuang-En Yu, Xin Qi, and Yun-Wei Dong from the Ocean University of China, provides a detailed mapping of suitable and high-yield areas for 27 commercial finfish species under current and future climate scenarios.

The study integrates thermal performance curves (TPCs) with the dynamic marine environment to project the growth potential of finfish mariculture globally. The researchers developed a nonlinear TPC model that accurately describes the relationship between fish growth rates and environmental temperatures. This model was combined with fine-scale spatiotemporal data on sea temperature, dissolved oxygen, and current speed to identify regions where finfish can thrive.

The findings reveal that the current size of potentially suitable areas for finfish mariculture is approximately (8.00 ± 0.30)×10⁶ km², with high-yield areas covering about (5.96 ± 0.13)×10⁶ km². These areas are predominantly located in mid and low latitudes, where growth potential is higher. Notably, warm-water species have larger suitable and high-yield areas compared to temperate and cold-water species.

Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, the study projects an increase in both suitable and high-yield areas by 2050. Specifically, the size of suitable areas is expected to increase by 2.55% and 5.47% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, while high-yield areas are projected to grow by 5.59% and 7.87% under the same scenarios. This suggests that finfish mariculture could play a significant role in global food security as suitable areas expand.

The study also highlights the importance of depth-adjustable mariculture methods, which allow for better utilization of the marine environment’s spatiotemporal heterogeneity. By adjusting cage depths, mariculture activities can optimize growth conditions throughout the year, even in regions with significant temperature variations.

The researchers used a comprehensive dataset, including physiological experiments and mariculture data for 27 species, representing approximately 70% of global finfish mariculture production from 2017 to 2021. The species list includes a mix of warm-water, temperate, and cold-water fish, ensuring a broad representation of potential mariculture candidates.

The study’s conclusions emphasize the potential benefits of climate change for finfish mariculture, particularly for cold-water species like Atlantic salmon, which are expected to see expanded suitable and high-yield areas. However, the response to climate change varies among species and regions, with some warm-water species also projected to benefit.

Despite the promising outlook, the study acknowledges limitations, including the absence of selective breeding considerations and the exclusion of socioeconomic factors in the assessment. Future research could explore these areas to provide a more comprehensive understanding of finfish mariculture potential.

The study provides valuable insights for the effective planning and management of finfish mariculture, offering a growth-based mapping approach that could enhance the efficiency and sustainability of global seafood production.

The paper “Mapping Potential High-Yield Areas for Finfish Mariculture Using Physiological Models,” is authored by Shuang-En Yu, Xin Qi, Yun-Wei Dong. Full text of the open access paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2025.01.023. For more information about Engineering, visit the website at https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/engineering.