https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.15212/ZOONOSES-2026-0003
Announcing a new article publication for
Zoonoses journal. Plague (
Yersinia pestis) remains endemic in Madagascar and causes recurrent outbreaks leading to substantial mortality. This study was aimed at developing a high-resolution spatial risk assessment integrating environmental suitability and population exposure.
A total of 174 confirmed plague occurrence records (1939–2023) were analyzed with a Maxent ecological niche model to predict nationwide environmental suitability. Variable contributions and permutation importance were assessed. Model outputs were downscaled to 100-m resolution and integrated with LandScan ambient population data to generate a plague exposure risk index. Commune-level spatial clustering was evaluated through Getis-Ord G
i* hotspot analysis.
Suitability was strongly associated with elevations of 1,000–1,750 m, moderate precipitation, and cooler temperatures in the Central Highlands. Elevation contributed 57.8% to model performance, whereas temperature seasonality showed high permutation importance (37.4%). Hotspot analysis identified 484 significant communes across 13 regions, and five highland regions accounted for 82.9% of hotspots. Approximately 14.8 million people (62.8%) reside in areas with some degree of risk, including 9.4 million people (40.1%) in high- to very-high-risk zones.
Plague risk is concentrated in Madagascar’s highlands, where substantial populations remain exposed, thus supporting targeted surveillance and public health planning.
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eISSN 2737-7474
ISSN 2737-7466
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Mark A. Deka. A High-Resolution Geospatial Framework for Zoonotic Plague Risk Mapping in Madagascar.
Zoonoses. 2026. Vol. 6(1). DOI: 10.15212/ZOONOSES-2026-0003