What keeps volcanologists up at night? New £3.7M project aims to improve early warning of sudden, dangerous volcanic eruptions

Hundreds of millions of people worldwide live within 100 kilometres of a volcano that has experienced at least one significant eruption. Yet the warning signs that signal a shift from relatively mild activity to a high-impact eruption remain unclear. A major new £3.7 million University of Bristol-led research project aims to change this.

The Ex-X: Expecting the Unexpected study will investigate what drives dangerous escalations in volcanic activity and how scientists can better detect them before they threaten lives.

Research shows that around 61% of eruptions initially affect only the immediate area around a volcano’s summit, before rapidly escalating into far more explosive and dangerous events capable of impacting much larger populations. Understanding why and how these transitions occur is one of the biggest challenges in volcanology.

Led by Professor Jenni Barclay from Bristol’s School of Earth Sciences, the NERC-funded project will build on recent advances in volcanology, seismology, and numerical modelling.

Initial research will focus on three volcanic systems in the Eastern Caribbean: Soufrière Volcano (St Vincent), Montagne Pelée (Martinique), and Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat).

Recent advances in seismology will enable the team to deploy large numbers of seismic ‘nodes’ across the Soufrière Volcano in the Caribbean island of St Vincent. These instruments, with long battery lives, will allow researchers to gather crucial data even when the volcano is not erupting.

The resulting measurements, along with data from past eruptions, will be analysed using machine learning, helping the team to recognise subsurface activity before, during, and after these eruptive transitions.

These new insights will be incorporated into new mathematical models to simulate eruption processes. By tracking the development of eruptions in the simulations, the team will identify the key drivers and potential signals of escalations in eruptions.

In parallel, the research team will use advanced micro-analytical techniques, including Bristol’s X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and a state-of-the-art electron microprobe, to examine the small-scale changes in crystals formed during recent and historic eruptions. These crystals preserve records of changing conditions within magma systems, offering valuable clues to the processes that precede eruptions.

Professor Jenni Barclay, AXA Chair in Volcanology at Bristol’s School of Earth Sciences and the project lead, explains: “Unexpected shifts in volcanic eruptions have historically had significant impacts on people living around active volcanoes in the Eastern Caribbean and elsewhere, but there is still considerable uncertainty around when these will occur. Ex-X aims to deliver a step-change in our ability to anticipate these dangerous escalations.

“Recent analytical, theoretical, and instrumental advances in volcanology, alongside advances in numerical modelling capacities, may now make it possible for us to better recognise the subtle signs of a dangerous shift and provide early warning.

“Our aim is to combine highly detailed observations derived from real eruptions with our improved models to gain deeper theoretical understanding and identify a range of likely scenarios at Eastern Caribbean volcanoes that will help us monitor eruptions.

“By working with our observatory partners throughout the project, we are hoping this will particularly benefit those responsible for volcanic hazard monitoring and management, and through them, the exposed populations and managers of risk in volcanic countries.”

Dr Erouscilla Joseph, Director of The University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre, which is responsible for monitoring the many volcanoes of the English-speaking Eastern Caribbean, and a key partner in the Ex-X study, added: “Many Caribbean communities live in the shadow of dangerous volcanoes. Rapid changes in activity can overwhelm evacuation efforts and devastate entire regions. Involvement in research like this is essential, because the advances we make will directly improve how we respond to the next eruption.”

The international collaboration includes UK researchers from the universities of Bristol, Plymouth, East Anglia, Manchester, and Oxford, alongside partners in the Eastern Caribbean, the USA, Germany, and Italy.