Cropland not only provides basic materials such as food and feed for humanity but also fulfills crucial ecological functions including water retention, carbon storage, and soil retention. Collectively termed “cropland ecosystem services (ESs)”, these functions are vital for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). China sustains 20% of the global population with merely 8% of the world’s arable land and 6% of its water resources, placing immense pressure on its cropland ecosystems. Although China has implemented large-scale ecological programs since 2000, such as the Grain for Green Program and the Natural Forest Conservation Program, the dynamic variation patterns of cropland ESs and their underlying driving mechanisms remain unclear. This gap hinders the formulation of sustainable agricultural management strategies. Therefore, scientifically analyzing the changing trends of cropland ESs and identifying key driving factors along with their interactions have become critical for synergistically advancing food security and ecological protection.
Recently, Hengyu Pan from Sichuan Agricultural University, Xiangyu Zheng from Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, and their colleagues systematically uncovered the dynamic changes and driving mechanisms of cropland ESs in China from 2000 to 2020 by integrating the InVEST model, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). This study overcomes the limitations of traditional single-method approaches by combining spatial analysis with multivariate statistical models. It not only quantifies the direct impacts of climate, terrain, vegetation, soil, and human activities on ESs but also reveals the complex indirect interactions among these factors, offering a novel perspective for understanding the “driving network” of cropland ESs. The relevant research has been published in
Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering (
DOI: 10.15302/J-FASE-2025614).
The study found that from 2000 to 2020, China’s cropland ESs exhibited significant differentiation: water purification (WP) capacity improved, while grain production (GP), soil retention (SR), carbon storage (CS), and water retention (WR) capacities declined—with the most prominent degradation observed in southern China (SC). Spatial analysis revealed strong spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of ES hotspots. For instance, GP hotspots were concentrated in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) and the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain (MLYP), and gradually expanded toward the Northeast China Plain (NCP). In contrast, WR function showed a pattern of “strong in the south and weak in the north”, with major hotspots in SC and the MLYP. Notably, persistent trade-off relationships existed between CS and WR, as well as between WR and WP—meaning the enhancement of one function may lead to the decline of another, posing challenges for functional synergy in agricultural management.
Further analysis of the driving mechanisms indicated that climate had the most significant direct impact on WR and WP, with path coefficients exceeding 0.6. This is attributed to the fact that climatic factors such as precipitation and evapotranspiration directly determine the water balance. Vegetation emerged as the strongest driver of GP, while terrain exerted the most notable effect on SR. Although human activities had a positive direct impact on GP and WR, this effect was mitigated by the indirect influence of terrain—for example, terrain indirectly reduced the service functions of cropland ecosystems by altering vegetation coverage and the intensity of human activities. Additionally, the impact of climate on GP shifted from positive to negative after 2010, reflecting the potential adverse effects of recent climate change on agricultural production.
This study provides a scientific basis for the sustainable management of China’s cropland ecosystems. To address the degradation of ESs in SC, the research suggests prioritizing targeted protection measures. Regarding the trade-off between CS and WR, differentiated management strategies should be developed to avoid ecological imbalances caused by the optimization of a single function. Meanwhile, the study emphasizes the need to consider the interactions among driving factors. For example, in major grain-producing regions, efforts should be made to enhance the promoting effect of vegetation on GP by improving vegetation coverage and optimizing cropping structures, while simultaneously alleviating the constraints of terrain on ecological functions through soil and water conservation projects.