Amid the dual challenges of global climate change and food security, the agrifood system, as a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, plays a crucial role in the low-carbon transition for developing countries to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development. As representative developing economies, China and Africa collectively contribute 32% of global agricultural carbon emissions. Despite differences in their development stages, they share similarities in terms of agricultural dependence and food security needs. China has made progress in emission reduction through agricultural modernization, while Africa is still in a critical phase of transitioning from traditional to modern agriculture. What specific differences exist in agrifood system carbon emissions between these two regions? And can China’s experience provide a replicable low-carbon transition pathway for Africa?
A research team led by Professor Yumei Zhang from the Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy (AGFEP) at China Agricultural University, in collaboration with Dr. Issa Ouedraogo from the Alliance of Biodiversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), has conducted a study that reveals the structural characteristics and emission reduction potential of agrifood system carbon emissions in China and Africa. The related article has been published in Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering (DOI: 10.15302/J-FASE-2025609).
Based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations spanning from 2000 to 2021, the study found that Africa’s total carbon emissions have consistently remained higher than China’s, but China has exhibited a faster growth rate. From 2000 to 2021, Africa’s carbon emissions increased by approximately 40%, while China’s rose by around 70%. However, the trend in per capita emissions is the opposite. This discrepancy reflects fundamental differences in agricultural development models between the two regions: China has improved production efficiency through agricultural modernization, whereas Africa still relies on traditional extensive farming practices with low technological levels, and is significantly affected by land-use changes.
Notably, carbon emissions within Africa show distinct regional disparities. East Africa and Central Africa have experienced the fastest growth, while North Africa and South Africa have seen slower increases. This imbalance is primarily driven by agricultural expansion and land-use changes in East Africa and Central Africa. In contrast, North Africa and South Africa have managed to curb the growth rate of emissions to some extent due to their relatively advanced agricultural technologies.
The study also identified a significant divergence in the structure of carbon emissions between the two regions. China’s agricultural carbon emissions have shifted from being dominated by the production stage to the pre-production (e.g., fertilizer manufacturing) and post-production (e.g., food processing and transportation) stages. This shift is closely linked to the expansion of China’s agricultural supply chain and the upgrading of consumer demand. In contrast, Africa’s carbon emissions remain highly dependent on the production stage and land-use changes. Among these, land-use change is the largest source of emissions; within the production stage, enteric fermentation in ruminants and methane emissions from rice paddies are the main contributors. Additionally, although emissions from pre-production and post-production stages in Africa are relatively small in scale, they have shown a notable growth rate, indicating initial signs of modernization in the agricultural supply chain.
The use of fertilizers, pesticides, and energy are key input factors influencing carbon emissions. China has significantly improved resource efficiency through the implementation of the zero-growth policy for fertilizer use in 2015. In contrast, while the application intensity of fertilizers in Africa is relatively low, the usage volume is growing rapidly. Moreover, due to backward technologies, Africa faces prominent issues of low efficiency in fertilizer use.
In terms of emission reduction strategies, China focuses on technological innovation and policy support. For instance, it promotes precision agriculture and circular agriculture, and provides green subsidies to incentivize farmers. These measures have enabled China to stabilize emissions in the production stage while increasing yields. Africa, on the other hand, primarily relies on subsidy policies to ensure food security and has piloted ecological policies. However, the environmental benefits of Africa’s policies are limited, mainly due to insufficient funding and difficulties in popularizing technologies.
This study systematically compares agrifood system carbon emissions between China and Africa, which are at significantly different development stages, reveals the driving mechanisms behind different links of the production-land-supply chain, and fills the gap in similar research. The study suggests that China and Africa can explore low-carbon agricultural pathways suitable for developing countries through technological cooperation (e.g., China assisting Africa in establishing digital agricultural platforms) and policy experience sharing (e.g., the design of green subsidies).
DOI: 10.15302/J-FASE-2025609