Cervical cancer remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths among women worldwide, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives each year, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Despite the proven effectiveness of HPV vaccination and screening, many nations still struggle with limited healthcare access, vaccine supply, and data gaps. These barriers hinder progress toward the WHO’s “90-70-90” elimination targets by 2030. Understanding when and how elimination can be achieved—and at what cost—requires a scientific framework that goes beyond observation. Due to these challenges, modeling-based research is urgently needed to identify practical, country-specific pathways toward cervical cancer elimination.
In August 2025, researchers from the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College published (DOI: 10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2025.0387) a perspective in Cancer Biology & Medicine. The study offers a panoramic view of how mathematical modeling has guided the world’s response to cervical cancer—from early feasibility studies in Australia to global coordination under WHO-led initiatives. It also highlights China’s growing role in using evidence-based modeling to shape national policies that align with global elimination goals.
Over the past decade, modeling studies have reshaped global strategies for cervical cancer prevention. Early projections from Australia first showed that elimination could potentially be achieved within 20 years through high HPV vaccination and regular screening. Building on this, the WHO’s Cervical Cancer Elimination Modeling Consortium combined three dynamic transmission models—Harvard, Policy1-Cervix, and HPV-ADVISE—to simulate outcomes for 78 low- and middle-income countries. Their findings showed that vaccination alone could cut incidence by nearly 90%, but pairing it with two lifetime screenings would make elimination feasible in most settings.
China's case demonstrates the power of modeling to inform policy decisions. Studies project that elimination could be achieved between the 2040s and 2060s depending on intervention speed, potentially preventing up to 15 million cases and saving more than $20 billion in healthcare costs. Strategies such as prioritizing girls aged 9–14 for vaccination and adopting HPV self-sampling screening have been identified as both cost-effective and equitable. The newly launched Cervical Cancer Elimination Planning Tool, jointly developed by the University of Sydney and the International Agency for Research on Cancer, empowers developing nations to convert complex modeling insights into clear, evidence-based pathways toward cervical cancer elimination.
“Mathematical models give governments a clear picture of what’s possible,” said Dr. Li Zhang, one of the corresponding authors. “They turn complex data into realistic pathways for action—showing how limited resources can be used to save the most lives. In China, modeling has already helped identify the most efficient vaccination and screening strategies under real-world constraints. But models are only the beginning. Translating these insights into sustained policy and equitable implementation will ultimately pave the path toward cervical cancer elimination.”
The use of modeling is revolutionizing global public health planning. By pinpointing the most efficient ways to combine vaccination, screening, and treatment, models help governments design affordable and sustainable elimination programs. For low- and middle-income countries, tools like the Elimination Planning Tool bridge the gap between data and decision-making, ensuring that progress is both measurable and inclusive. Future directions include integrating artificial intelligence to enhance screening precision, building stronger data systems to guide interventions, and expanding international partnerships. Together, these efforts are transforming the once-distant goal of cervical cancer elimination into a data-driven reality.
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References
DOI
10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2025.0387
Original Source URL
https://doi.org/10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2025.0387
Funding Information
This study was supported by the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (No. 2023-I2M-3-019) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82404366).
About Cancer Biology & Medicine (CBM)
Cancer Biology & Medicine (CBM) is a peer-reviewed open-access journal sponsored by China Anti-cancer Association (CACA) and Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute & Hospital. The journal monthly provides innovative and significant information on biological basis of cancer, cancer microenvironment, translational cancer research, and all aspects of clinical cancer research. The journal also publishes significant perspectives on indigenous cancer types in China. The journal is indexed in SCOPUS, MEDLINE and SCI (IF 8.4, 5-year IF 6.7), with all full texts freely visible to clinicians and researchers all over the world (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/journals/2000/).