A new study warns that climate change will significantly reshape wind energy potential across the Middle East. While surface winds may intensify in some regions, wind speeds at turbine height are projected to decline—posing challenges for energy planners across the region. Using high-resolution climate modeling, the research highlights the urgent need to factor future wind dynamics into sustainable energy strategies.

A new study published in the journal Climatic Change highlights significant shifts in wind patterns across the Middle East due to climate change, with critical implications for the region's wind energy potential. The research, led by Melissa Latt from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany, and Dr. Assaf Hochman from the Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, utilizes high-resolution climate modeling to project changes in summer wind fields up to the year 2070.

The study, employing the COSMO-CLM regional climate model at a high spatial resolution of 8 km, reveals a complex picture. While median surface winds are projected to increase by up to 0.7 meters per second, driven primarily by land-sea temperature contrasts, wind speeds at wind turbine height (150 meters) are projected to decrease significantly across much of the region. This decline is linked to changes in the Persian Trough, a dominant summer synoptic system in the Middle East.

The study found that these upper-level wind reductions could lead to a regional drop of up to 7 gigajoules (GJ) of wind energy over six hours, with important consequences for renewable energy planning and infrastructure investment.
Key Findings:

• Surface Winds Increasing: Median surface wind speeds are projected to rise by up to 0.7 m/s by 2070, especially near coastal areas. These increases may help mitigate extreme heat stress.
• Upper-Level Winds Decreasing: At 150 meters above ground, median wind speeds are expected to drop by up to 1.0 m/s, resulting in a measurable reduction in potential wind energy production—particularly inland and over the Mediterranean Sea.
• Regional Hotspots and Declines: The Red Sea emerges as a wind energy hotspot, showing potential increases, while inland areas like the Syrian Desert, the Mediterranean coastline, and the Judean Mountains are projected to see notable declines.
• Climatic Complexity: The findings emphasize the complex interplay between regional topography, atmospheric circulation, and land-sea temperature gradients, which together shape the region’s unique summer wind systems.

“These findings provide essential insights for policymakers and planners across the Middle East,” says Dr. Hochman. “Wind energy is a critical component of the region’s sustainable future, and understanding how climate change reshapes wind patterns is key to smart, long-term investment. Our research also underscores the need to differentiate between wind patterns at the surface and at turbine-relevant heights,” he adds. “Neglecting this vertical dimension can lead to over- or underestimations of a site’s true wind energy potential.”

The study calls for more comprehensive, multi-model research to better capture local wind variability, especially in areas with complex geography. It also highlights the urgent need to incorporate future wind projections into national and regional energy strategies, especially in regions—like the Red Sea coast—where potential remains strong.